There’s lots in the news today picking up a survey by the Local Government Association showing a shortage of state school places, supposedly because the recession is forcing privately-educated pupils into the state sector.

We don’t think that’s true.

The reality, and contrary to what we predicted last autumn, is that private schools in the UK are doing OK. An Economist report pointed out that numbers of pupils at independent schools is steady this year. Parents try hard not to change schools if they possibly can … but may think twice about starting pre-school children in a fee-paying school. So, in the 1990s, the number of independent school places didn’t drop until 3 years AFTER the recession, and then only by around 3%.

What is happening is that the demographics of the UK are changing. Only one fifth of councils in the LGA survey reported a shortage of places, and these are likely to be in central London. More immigration of young adults into London over the last 10 years had lead to a boom in pre-school children, which will rapidly increase inner-city demand for primary places. Visa versa, schools in Merseyside have up to 25% surplus places as the population ages and young families move out the area.

The upshot is that more provision needs to be made for schools to expand and grow in areas of demand (London and the South East), and merge and shrink in areas of lower demand. This may mean some disruption for teachers, but the alternative is unacceptably high class sizes in already crowded schools in the inner-cities.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, July 15th, 2009 at 1:53 pm and is filed under Business, Education Policy, UK teaching. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.